trade

Trading the USD CAD - We All Nerd Out Together

all right Canada let's be honest you

guys are pretty much just nicer funnier

more awkward versions of us and a lot of

neighbors don't get along but we do and

it's a really nice thing we are all

pretty much brothers from another mother

and sisters from another mister and so

we're allowed to give each other

for example there is an old joke in the

restaurant industry that says how do you

know if your table is from Canada

because they'll tell you and in all

honesty you could take out Canada and

substitute Texas it's the exact same

joke but welcome to the dollar cad video

now hi why would I make a video on the

dollar cad it doesn't really fit a

category it doesn't fit a superlative

like the absolute worst pair to trade

out of the a majors or one of the best

pairs to trade out of the eight majors

it's just kind of on its own it has the

dollar the US dollar end of it which

makes it not great and it also has the

CAD end of the equation which if I were

to go back and probably look at my

entire wins and losses I probably take

more losses on the cad than I do

anything but when you put these two

together when you put the United States

and Canada together you get something

that is a bit unique to anything else

out there now I will not be making a

video on every single currency pair

every single combination of the eight

majors unless it really has something

unique to it it doesn't really need its

own video like I I'm not gonna make a

video on the Euro kiwi I don't know what

I would say about that that I wouldn't

say about anything else I'm gonna try to

go ahead and make videos on all of the

the most heavily traded currency pairs

but there are specific nuances to this

pair that if you are aware of them you

can up your winrate on this pair a lot

especially over time

I mean how long do you plan on trading

Forex how long do you plan on living you

know another 40 50 years 60 that's a lot

of dollar cash rates so every little

advantage you can get here is a big one

and the more you understand this pair

and what it brings to the table the more

advantageous your trading is going to be

down the road so in this video we're

gonna break down the dollar cad as a

pair we don't need to spend too much

time on this really I know there are

some of you that have found this channel

because you searched usdcad and this

probably ranked pretty well because it's

a popular forex Channel but the reason

why it's a popular forex channel is

because it's a really great way to trade

and you need to start from the beginning

I'm gonna put the beginners video down

below in the description if you like

what this video brings to the table

click that video too and learn how to

trade our way I think you're really

gonna like what you see but a lot of

things in this video are going to be

concepts that we have gone over in the

past and it we may lose you a little bit

but stick with us you will still learn

some things also there are things to do

on this pair and there are also things

to not do on this pair I think there are

people who make the same mistakes over

and over when it comes to a particular

part of the dollar cad and we need to

explore that a little bit further and

then towards the end I have a trick for

you it's gonna be something you are

probably not expecting but it does

relate to what we do on this channel and

it also involves me breaking my own

rules which I have just started to do

and show on this channel so get ready

for that that's all I can really say

about it about you let's have to stick

around so we move forward now the base

level things you have to know about the

dollar cad what's really great about it

is like the Aussie Kiwi which is my

favorite pair to trade come

unequivocably

and like the Euro Pound in a lot of ways

the economies tend to run together this

is really good because what it avoids

now is some crazy up day or some crazy

down day in the

United States economy coming in and

ruining your perfectly good technical

trade I like it when countries economies

are very close together because and

that's one more thing that I can't

control that I don't have to worry about

anymore I'm sure there has been days

where something that happened in the

economy came in and screwed up the

dollar cad somewhere but it doesn't

happen that often and even though

followers of this channel might think

Dalek cat is one of the worst pairs to

trade overall it's actually not and this

is one of the big reasons why also

what's really nice is the biggest news

for both of these currencies typically

come out on the same day non-farm

payrolls and the Canadian employment

report almost always come out on the

same day you will find some cases where

they don't but more often than not they

do and what I will typically do here is

something I don't do with any other

currency pair we talked in the forex

news video which if you haven't seen

that you really really need to I'm going

to link that down below as well we said

that if really big news is coming up for

any currency that you are involved in or

are thinking about trading you need to

give yourself a 24 hour buffer a 24 hour

window meaning do not enter a trade

within 24 hours of big news coming out

for that currency if you are trading the

daily chart which is what we do here I

take this a little further with the

dollar cat when I know that the big news

the big employment news for both

currencies are coming out on the same

day I will give it a 48 hour buffer if

I'm looking on Wednesday and I have a

really sweet dollar cad setup I'm going

to ignore it because typically that

Thursday price is not gonna move a whole

lot

the chances of me entering a trade on

Wednesday and having price moves so much

that I'm gonna take my initial profit on

Thursday and then be able to kind of sit

out Friday is very very low so this is

the only pair for this one reason that I

will break the

24-hour rule and actually make it a

48-hour rule I hope this makes sense to

you make sure you have seen that video

you're really risking losing a lot of

pips over time if you haven't and then

due to one piece of fundamental analysis

that you know that thing we try to avoid

all the time

there's something we can really take

advantage of here this is part of that

little trick I told you about earlier

but we will get to that let's go ahead

and move on from here now that we've

covered kind of these base level things

that make the dollar cad unique to most

other currency pairs out there I just

wanted you to know about these first now

the dollar cad really does have some

uniqueness to it and we need to know

what it is before we go forward but even

though I did a podcast on this already I

think those episode 19 if I remember

there are still a lot of traders out

there and I know because I got emails on

this all the time that still want to use

oil to trade the Canadian dollar now if

you don't know Canada has oceans and

oceans of shitty low-grade oil but it is

still very useful and America uses a lot

of it and the world uses a lot of it and

so it makes up a very big portion of

their economy and you typically know

when oil moves the Canadian dollar is

going to move with it so what a lot of

people will attempt to do is look at a

chart of WTI crude oil which is the oil

that we have here in North America and

try to correlate it to the Canadian

dollar this is a really big mistake I

have no idea what advantage you think

you are gaining by doing this but there

just is no advantage to be had here I'll

try the best I can to illustrate this to

you by going to my charts so here we are

this is a chart of WTI crude oil against

the United States dollar so you would

assume that if these things correlated

the way people think they do then it

would actually be inversely correlated

this should when I show you a dollar cad

in just a minute it should do the exact

opposite of this chart you see right

here so you see this move down you see

the drop the valley and then it slowly

started kind of cascading upward alright

so we should see the exact opposite in

the dollar cad the problem is is we kind

of do and we kind of don't all right so

there is the move upward and then the

peak so pretty good so far

but then after that you don't get this

slow even move downward which would be

the opposite of that slow moving upward

move we saw here you don't get that

instead you get this kind of jerky

inverse head and shoulders pattern and

then this thing over here so what we can

tell from this is that it pretty much

did inversely correlate

up until this point and then it just

didn't anymore

that's not good that does not inspire

confidence in me as a trader because I

know at any given time it can just

decide to stop doing what everybody

thinks it's going to do and I have no

idea when that change is going to occur

and so this helps me absolutely zero now

if you want to do a direct correlation I

would say probably that WTI crude oil

would correlate more to the cat yen but

even there you see just too many

differences some similarities in the

overall structure but just too many

differences like this should have gone

down a lot heavier than it did right

here that stayed pretty much even then

you had flash crash and then bright

backup not the same doesn't really

correlate the only way using this chart

here of WTI crude oil would ever really

help me trade Forex is if I could find a

way for it to either correlate or

inversely correlate perfectly with

something else and then have it be one

day off just so I could use

on as a canary in the coalmine to tell

me that the other one was about to move

long or short but that doesn't happen it

doesn't happen anywhere you can't really

use oil to trade the CAD you can't

really use gold to trade the Aussie

dollar it just doesn't work that way and

if it did everybody would do it

and then if everybody did it the banks

would catch on and then it would ruin

everything anyway

so overall when it comes to oil here's

what you have to know if you are trying

to use it to trade the cat it's just

going to make things more difficult on

you a really great system is 100 times

better than any type of correlation

you're ever going to find out there so

focus on that and not about trying to

get cute and use oil or gold to trade

the cat or the Aussie or anything like

that just eliminate it

you're better off because oil itself is

really hard to figure out I have not had

any luck in ten years trying to chart it

and trying to make any kind of real

profit off of it this might change

starting today while I'm doing this

video I might as well just announce it

now I have something that seems to work

really well and I'm gonna forward test

it out starting today

March 13th to 2019 and we'll go ahead

and track it and check out the results

at the end of the year and if they are

good then I will share that with you and

that will give you one more thing to

trade we're are gonna bardic an attack

on metals onto our forex trading and if

we can tack on anything else down the

road that just makes it even better but

that book has not been written yet I

just want to go ahead and put it out

there that I'm putting in my very first

oil trade today and wish me luck we'll

let it run if it doesn't work no big

deal if it does that benefits all of us

but even if I do find something good I'm

not going to use it to trade the

Canadian dollar because the correlations

just aren't helpful enough it doesn't

give me what I need I need this magical

combination of one chart being a day

early to the party and even if I had

that people would figured out overtime

and the big banks would too and

everything would just be ruined anyway

so please all of you ignore oil and

don't even go this direction at any

point

time so now it is time to tell you about

that little cool trick I was mentioning

earlier this is not for the instant

gratification crowd this is a long-term

thing

but this is something that so far has

not lost one time so I have a friend

that I've known through trading his name

is Terry he's this Canadian guy who made

his money in Canadian mining stocks and

also trading Forex

because his name is Terry and he's from

Canada I always think of Terrance from

Terrance and Phillip so every every time

I correspond with him this is the

picture I get in my head

now I've never met him in person he

probably doesn't look like this

but he is one of the sharpest traders I

have ever met and he's to the point now

to where he is more of a Forex investor

now do you guys remember the last time I

said the word Forex investor it was in

the fundamental analysis video he uses

fundamental analysis for this little

trick I am about to show you therefore

one of the few times you'll ever see me

do this I am using fundamental analysis

here I can't even believe I just said

that but as you saw in the Dead markets

video last week this is all about me

breaking my own rules every once in a

while now I don't want you guys to ever

start breaking the rules you need to put

in years of experience in the system you

have before you start finding these

little random cracks that you can

exploit this in but sometime late in

2013 Canada had some provincial

elections something it wasn't an

election for prime minister or anything

like that so it seemed pretty innocuous

at the time but I got an email from

Terry saying it is officially time to

fade the Canadian dollar which means it

is time to trade against the Canadian

dollar every chance I can get and he

said the best way to do this was

probably gonna be the dollar cad he said

I don't know how long it's going to take

the dollar cat is probably still gonna

be choppy at times like it always is but

when it moves it's gonna move up and

it's gonna move in spurts so be ready

for it and I am NOT one to go against

what this man says he has been right so

many times and he plays in a sandbox

nowadays that I don't ever play in so I

trust his word indefinitely on this he

was one of the sharpest traders I have

ever met so I thought about it and I'm

like alright how am i best going to

exploit this information assuming it's

right so I came up with something

something that I have shown you already

and I'm going right about to show you

again and it worked the first time I

tried it or I tested it without any

money behind it and then every other

time it happened again I made sure I was

there and I actually traded it and I

never lost and it is a situation that is

about to come up again so let's check

this out you guys remember the macd

video I hope you do is a good little

video it's it showed how the MACD was

really not the best thing in the world

it's not as great as a people because

people make it out to be but it's not

terrible it does some really good things

in particular it can be used as two of

the three types of trend indicators that

we talk about on this channel zero line

cross and a two lines cross which is

really neat for one indicator to do that

but the best part about it if you watch

that video the one real takeaway from

that entire video is the continuation

trade that moment where for example if

you're if you're going long if both

lines are above zero and they cross

upward that is a continuation trade that

is you entering a trade in a trend that

is already happening continuation trades

were some of the biggest trades I've

ever had and so I said to myself okay

I'm going to take the indicator that I

use for continuation trades and plug it

in and I am only going to take

continuation trade Long's on the dollar

cad because from what Terri said they

should be happening and when they happen

they're going to

and big so I want to be a part of that

and by golly it worked like a charm

let's go take a look and here we are on

the dollar cad weekly chart yes

vp is on the weekly chart for the first

time ever I don't think I'll ever do

this again but again like I said it's

all about breaking our own rules here

for this one particular trade now I

think the elections happen kind of right

around here oh it's dope I'm sorry it's

further back 2013 so yeah so I was able

to track this move right here now this

is a continuation trade because both of

these lines I'm on the MACD by the way

I'm not going to show you the actual

continuation indicator that I use but

this also worked perfectly just with the

regular old MACD so you can sit there

and do this too even if you don't have a

continuation indicator that you like to

use right now just plug in the MACD

because what happened here was both

lines are above zero and they crossed up

that is by definition a long

continuation trade and you can see that

if you entered right here right where it

crossed that was a nice trade went over

500 pips

before I've been crossing back down

you've probably got a good 450 500 pips

in that trade all alone and then it

happened again over here it's even

though it dipped down by the time the

lines crossed above each other it was

over the zero so that would have been

right about here and that was a great

trade and then 2015 happened and right

as I was making money on this new little

trick that I learned I got another email

from Terry right as the prime minister

election finished and all his email said

and I'll never never forget this I still

have it it just said step on the gas

meaning now look we are politically

agnostic here at no-nonsense Forex

political comments are not welcome in

the youtube comment section this is your

sanctuary we're away from that but

we pay attention to things if it

actually helps us make money and this is

one of those things he said step on the

gas because Canada just elected a prime

minister that didn't really know a whole

lot about money and so I I remember that

and then later when the American

election came along he sent me another

email that said lean on the gas which

means take it even further now I

disagreed with him on this I'm like look

Trump's gonna want a weaker dollar but I

have learned from the past do not go

against what Terry says so I kept right

on what I was doing but I put a little

more money behind at this time and I

said all right I'm gonna keep looking

for dollar cad Long's on this same

method of what we're doing so let's see

how that turned out so on the next trade

it happened right here and this was a

small win I do remember it you'd have

actually entered right after this candle

here and it peaked somewhere in the 400s

I think the ATR at this point was like

260 something like that so that was a

small win and then you come over to this

next one right here this was a win too

even though that's a big candle that

moved so all through 20 2015 and even

into 2016 we got nothing but wins on

that now things did drop the doll of the

US dollar did get cheaper as I suspected

so we were kind of both right on this so

there really wasn't any trade to be had

here for a while until this point right

here in 2017 oh I admit it had been so

long since one of these trades occurred

that I forgot to take it but it was a

win definitely and then you didn't see

it again

until just recently and thankfully I

remember this one because these trades

just do not lose

guess what maybe just maybe there's

another one of these coming up soon so

have this ready because even though it's

a long-term type trade it doesn't really

have anything to do with what we do here

it was really nice having these trades

go onto the background and just

constantly giving me money as I was

going about my normal trading I mean why

would you not want this and I'm sure

this is famous last word as soon as I

show it to everybody it's gonna fail but

if you are putting money behind those

put very little money behind this but

just know that this is something when

you take fundamentals that make sense

long term and are able to combine them

with what we already do every once in a

while there are little openings that you

can exploit and so far I can say with

confidence this has been one of those

little areas I'm really grateful for it

and I hope you are able to extract value

from this if not right now sometime down

the line when you also find some kind of

fundamental thing that you are so sure

is gonna come true down the road that

you can actually start taking advantage

of it yourself I know people to think

the euro is gonna completely fall apart

they say there are so many more people

that one of theirs somewhere countries

that want to leave the euro they want to

join the euro it was a bad idea from the

start and things can only go downhill

well good here's what you do you take

what I just showed you here and you flip

it and you go short on the euro

whatever whatever currency you think's

actually going to be strong if you

really feel that you can make money off

this if you are correct so give it a try

and test your little theory out and see

if it actually pays but just know beyond

this what I said before still stands do

not use fundamental analysis do not use

the weekly chart this is the one little

exception that I will throw out there

and this still may not be for everybody

but I thought while we're talking dollar

cad I would share this with you today

but in conclusion traders just

understand the nuances of the dollar cad

there's probably more to it than you

thought there was and for those reasons

I think this is a video that really had

to be made but just

keep those correlations out of your

trading please stop looking for them

stop looking for them amongst other

currencies I get a lot of questions

about that too just take them out of

your trading altogether you're gonna be

much much better off and anytime you see

little opportunities like this and you

know they work and you've tested it

feel free to exploit them I mean that's

why we do what we do again do not

deviate from your system until you have

put a lot of time into your system but

just know going forward that every once

in a while you can break from it if you

have something that you are almost

certain is going to work out long term

now I found this little wrinkle here it

was the only wrinkle I've really found

that has worked in ten years so this

wasn't gonna happen a whole lot but when

it does it can be a good thousand two

thousand pips in your pocket that wasn't

there before and if watching a twenty

seven minute video now can put a couple

thousand pips in your pocket down the

road well then this was time well-spent

wasn't it but for those of you checking

out the channel for the first time this

is how the channel is man we go over

things that nobody goes over you need to

be a part of this subscribe and hit the

bell don't miss anything go to that

beginners video if you want to know more

about what we do here this type of

trading has changed people's fortunes in

a very very short amount of time it is a

much easier and much more stress-free

way of trading the forex market and I in

turn will have new videos for you every

Thursday and the new podcast for you

every Monday but I will tell you this

one thing all of those successful

traders had is they have put in the work

the system takes a lot less work than

other systems do but it still takes work

the only time success comes before work

is in the dictionary so get to a traders

I'll see you Monday go get it